18 · The industry
Supply chain, money and geopolitics
Who makes each layer of a robot, who keeps the margin, where the money comes from, and how the US and China are pulling the industry into two camps.
China owns the bottom of the robot supply chain and ships about nine in ten humanoids. The US owns the chips and, until August 2026, the valuations. The profit sits at the two ends of the chain, in precision parts and chips at one end and in the brand and the service contract at the other, and the middle, where robots are assembled, earns the least. A new company in Southeast Asia should pick its place in that chain on purpose.
The industry on one screen
The robot industry chain is how Chinese sellers and officials describe the whole business, and they split it into three parts. Upstream is materials and core components: magnets, motors, reducers, screws, sensors, chips, batteries. Midstream is the robot makers that put them together. Downstream is the customers and the integrators who make robots useful at a site. The three words are standard in Chinese industry talk.
The supply chain in layers
Follow the atoms up. Rare earth ore becomes refined oxide, then NdFeB magnets, then motors. Motors meet reducers, screws, encoders and drivers inside joint modules. Joints, sensors, compute and a battery become a robot, and the robot goes to a customer. China's share changes at every step.
Real
A Chinese-sourced Optimus-class parts list runs about US$32,000 to 46,000; re-sourced entirely outside China the estimate is about US$131,000 to 133,000, a roughly 3x penalty directional. That penalty is why even Optimus V3 is about 70% Chinese content. The layers the West still holds are compute and, more loosely, high-precision sensing and aerospace-grade screw alloy.
ELI5
Almost every robot, even an American one, is built from Chinese parts, because the same robot without them costs three times as much. The one piece China doesn't make well yet is the computer brain, which comes from NVIDIA.
Two layers carry the most risk. The magnet is cheap to buy and hard to replace: magnets are about US$50 to 200 per robot, a low single-digit share of cost, yet in April 2025 Chinese magnet exports fell about 75% in two months under new licences verified. The planetary roller screw is the one layer where China still lags: foreign makers held 85% of China's own roller-screw market in 2023 estimate, and Chinese firms are now building millions of sets a year of capacity to change that.
Where the margin sits
Margin lives wherever a customer finds it hard to switch, and dies wherever switching is easy. A factory can be re-quoted in 90 days, so contract assembly earns like a commodity. A qualified reducer takes years to replace, a chip platform longer, and a service contract with a customer who trusts you longer still. Plot the margins along the chain and you get the smile curve: high at the ends, low in the middle.
Two readings of that chart are worth holding at once. Chinese robot brands earn real gross margin today, which the curve shows as a bump near the right end. But a price war is compressing it: Unitree's humanoid gross margin fell from 87.7% in 2023 to 68.4% in 2024 and 62.9% in the first nine months of 2025 verified, and component capacity is racing ahead of demand. The mature machine businesses show where margin settles. Otis earned 91% of its segment operating profit from service in 2025 on 65% of its sales verified, and Intuitive Surgical got 84% of its revenue from recurring instruments, service and leases verified.
Independent service firms hold about 50% of the world's elevator service units, though a smaller share of the value verified. That is the precedent for a third-party robot service company, and also its ceiling: independents win on the number of units, and the maker keeps the valuable contracts. See How robots fail and get fixed for the service model in detail.
BOM economics and the cost curve
Every bull case for humanoids assumes the robot gets much cheaper as well as more common. Goldman Sachs's September 2026 forecast of 6.5 million humanoids and about US$138bn in 2035 implies about US$21,000 per robot estimate, which is already near Unitree's 2025 humanoid average of about US$24,900 verified. Bank of America expects a Chinese-sourced parts list to fall from about US$35,000 in 2025 to US$13,000 to 17,000 by 2030 to 2035 estimate. The detail of what is in a robot and how it gets cheaper is in Materials, manufacturing and cost.
The cost curve bends against Western makers in one place: compute. NVIDIA raised Jetson module prices by up to 101% on 22 Jul 2026, taking the T5000 from US$2,999 to US$4,999 at 1,000 units verified. Chinese makers increasingly use domestic boards such as Rockchip's RK3588 in the G1 base or Horizon's RDK S100, launched at ¥2,499 verified.
The funding wave
Robotics startups raised US$15bn of venture money in 2025, beating the 2021 peak of US$14.1bn, then US$18.8bn in 2026 by 22 June verified and about US$23bn by early August unverified. Humanoid startups alone took about US$8.6bn in 2026 to August, against about US$3.7bn in all of 2025 unverified. The totals from different trackers disagree because each counts a different box, so never add them.
Two capital systems
The US funds robots with private megarounds from venture firms and strategic investors. The same names recur: Nvidia sits in Figure, Skild, Field AI, Neura, Agility, Dyna, Generalist and Physical Intelligence; Bezos in Figure, Skild, Physical Intelligence, Field AI and Generalist; SoftBank in Skild, Agility, ABB Robotics and reportedly 1X verified. That makes the money reflexive: strategics fund the customers who buy their chips, so one anchor pulling back could cascade.
China funds robots with state capital, corporate strategics and public markets. An NDRC-backed venture fund targets about ¥1 trillion over 20 years, layered with Shenzhen's ¥10bn AI and robotics industrial fund and Hangzhou government subsidies of up to ¥5 million per project unverified. Embodied intelligence is one of six growth engines in the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026 to 2030). Galbot's rounds came from CATL, a China Mobile fund, and units of Sinopec, CITIC, Bank of China and SAIC unverified. Then the STAR Market opened: Unitree's IPO priced at ¥150.80, raised about ¥6.1bn, drew retail oversubscription above 8,000x and closed day one at ¥845 verified. DeepSeek bought ¥140.8 million of shares in the strategic placement along with a joint humanoid-AI development deal verified.
| Company | Valuation | Revenue basis | Implied multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skild AI | >US$14bn (Jan 2026) | ~US$30m reported revenue unverified | ~470x sales |
| Figure AI | US$39bn (Sep 2025) | no disclosed revenue; BotQ rated 12,000 a year | n/a |
| Agility | US$2.5bn (SPAC, Jun 2026) | >US$300m multi-year orders; revenue undisclosed | ~8x order book |
| Unitree at IPO | ~US$9bn | ¥1.708bn sales, ¥278m GAAP profit (2025) | ~36x sales |
| Unitree, day-one close | ~US$51bn | same | ~200x sales, ~1,230x profit |
Multiples are derived from the figures shown estimate. Unitree's widely quoted ¥600m profit is an adjusted figure; GAAP net profit was ¥278.21m.
Not every raise closes. 1X sought US$1bn at US$10bn or more from September 2025, raised less than half, and SoftBank was reported in August 2026 to be negotiating a majority stake at about US$6bn unverified. Several headline marks were "in talks" figures. Treat them as signals.
Market forecasts and what they assume
| House, date | Forecast | Implied price per robot | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs, Sep 2026 | 75,000 humanoids in 2026; 890,000 in 2030; 6.5m and ~US$138bn in 2035 (was 1.4m and US$38bn) | ~US$21k | faster AI, falling hardware cost; warehouses first verified |
| Morgan Stanley, 24 Jun 2026 | China 50,000 in 2026; ~446,000 a year by 2030; US$15bn China market in 2030 | ~US$34k (2030) | second upgrade in six months verified |
| Barclays, Jan 2026 | US$2bn to 3bn today; up to US$200bn by 2035 in the most optimistic case | n/a | base case not published in sources verified |
| Morgan Stanley, Apr 2025 | US$5tn by 2050, ~1bn units in use | ~US$5k | very long horizon unverified |
| Citi GPS, Dec 2024 | US$7tn by 2050, 648m humanoids | ~US$11k | broad "AI robot" definition verified |
Across houses, 2035 estimates run from about US$9bn to about US$251bn unverified. The spread is the finding: nobody knows the adoption curve, and every forecast is a price forecast in disguise.
Who shipped what
| Company | 2025 humanoid shipments | Stated capacity or 2026 target |
|---|---|---|
| Unitree | >5,500 verified | 10,000 to 20,000 target unverified |
| AgiBot | 5,168 Omdia | >10,000 cumulative by Mar 2026 unverified |
| UBTech | 1,079 | ~5,000 target unverified |
| Leju, EngineAI, Fourier | ~500, ~400, ~300 estimate | Leju Foshan plant ~10,000 a year |
| Figure AI | ~150 Omdia | BotQ 12,000 a year; 350+ Figure 03 by Apr 2026 |
| Agility | ~150 Omdia | RoboFab 10,000 a year |
| Tesla | ~150 Omdia | Fremont line designed for 1m a year; no unit disclosure through Q2 2026 |
Stated capacity runs one to three orders of magnitude ahead of what shipped. For 2026, Goldman expects 75,000 humanoids worldwide and TrendForce more than 50,000 verified, while UBS projects about 30,000 estimate. Audited delivery numbers are the firm ones.
IFR statistics and robot density
The International Federation of Robotics (IFR) counts industrial robots every year. Its World Robotics 2026 report, released 24 Sep 2026, counts more than 600,000 installations in 2025 (+11%) and 5 million robots in operation verified. China installed 354,000 (+20%, 59% of the world), and Chinese brands took 55% of China's installs. IFR forecasts 655,000 installs in 2026 and 806,000 in 2029.
Robot density, robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers, is the fairest way to compare countries. IFR's April 2026 release (2024 data) ranks South Korea first at 1,220 and Singapore second at 818, ahead of Germany (449), Japan (446) and the US (307) verified. China shows 166 after IFR switched to a larger employee count from China's statistics bureau; earlier releases put it near 470 unverified. Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia sit behind IFR's paywall.
Real
Density normalises by workforce: installed stock divided by manufacturing employment. The global average is 132. A method change in the denominator can move a country from above Germany to below the average without a single robot leaving a factory, as China's did.
ELI5
Count the robots, count the factory workers, and divide. Singapore has 818 robots for every 10,000 factory workers, the second most in the world, so its factories already know robots well.
Service robots are counted separately and less reliably. In 2024 about 200,000 professional service robots sold (+9%): 102,900 for transport and logistics, more than 42,000 in hospitality (down 11%) and more than 25,000 for professional cleaning (+34%) verified. IFR warns that this comes from a sample of 294 suppliers and is not projected to the whole industry.
Geopolitics
The US and China each hold a chokepoint on the other. China controls rare earths and magnets and is building the cheapest robot bodies; the US controls advanced chips and the capital markets most Western makers rely on. Both are using them. Export controls and tariffs are splitting the industry into two capital pools and two supply chains.
Rare earth controls
- Licences on seven heavy rare earths and magnets
Samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium, plus magnets containing them, need case-by-case export licences of up to 45 working days with end-user disclosure. Magnet exports fell about 75% in two months; Musk cited a "magnet issue" delaying Optimus. verified
- Broad expansion
A 0.1%-by-value rule reaching foreign goods containing Chinese rare earths, 50%-affiliate capture, technology export bans and five more elements. verified
- Busan truce
Trump and Xi agree a one-year stand-down; China suspends the October measures from 7 Nov 2025 to 10 Nov 2026. verified
- First general licences
A handful of magnet makers get general licences, with humanoid robotics named; magnet exports rebound to 5,952 t. estimate
- US defence ban
US defence supply chains may no longer use rare earth magnets from China, Russia, Iran or North Korea. verified
- The date to watch
The suspended October 2025 package takes effect unless extended. The April 2025 licensing regime has never lapsed. verified
Rare earth prices split into two markets. Terbium oxide cost about US$804 a kilogram inside China against about US$4,028 outside, and dysprosium about US$191 against US$930 estimate. The US response is industrial policy: a US$400m Defense Department equity stake in MP Materials with a 10-year floor price of US$110 a kilogram for NdPr, and frameworks with Australia, Japan, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia verified.
Tariffs
A Chinese industrial robot entering the US now faces about 40% in duties: 2.5% most-favoured-nation, 25% under Section 301 List 1 since 2018, and a new 12.5% Section 301 tariff on China from 24 Jul 2026 estimate. The Supreme Court struck down the IEEPA tariffs, including the 125% peak on China, on 20 Feb 2026 verified. A Section 232 investigation into robotics and industrial machinery opened in September 2025 and had no proclamation as of September 2026 unverified, and a separate Section 301 overcapacity investigation naming robotics is due to decide by 11 Mar 2027 verified. Tier rates for Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore under the new Section 301 were not verified; they decide whether assembling Chinese parts in Southeast Asia saves duty.
Unitree, the Pentagon list and data security
The US House Select Committee on China asked in May 2025 for an investigation of Unitree's alleged links to China's military verified. In June 2026 Unitree was added to the Pentagon's Section 1260H list of Chinese military companies; the industry report says only "briefly", and its status now is unclear contested. Security researchers have given buyers concrete reasons to worry: the UniPwn flaw let anyone in Bluetooth range inject commands and take root on Go2, B2, G1 and H1 robots through an unfiltered setup channel protected by one shared, leaked key, and Alias Robotics reported the G1 sending telemetry to servers in China about every five minutes without telling the owner verified. For a buyer in a ministry, an airport or a utility, those findings decide the purchase before price does.
Buying complete joint modules from China does not take you out of the rare earth rules. Finished motors and joints ship as goods, so today your exposure is the magnet content; after 10 Nov 2026, the 0.1% rule could reach re-exports of any product containing Chinese rare earths estimate. Malaysia, home to Lynas, is the largest rare earth separation site outside China.
The reality check: pilots against revenue
Most humanoid money is still spent on research, demos and trials. In the first nine months of 2025, 73.6% of Unitree's humanoid revenue came from research and education buyers, 17.4% from commercial consumption and 9% from industrial buyers, and under 30% of that 9% was real manufacturing, inspection or logistics work; the rest was corporate tours and reception verified. Tesla shipped about 150 Optimus robots in 2025 against targets of 5,000 to 10,000, and Musk said in January 2026 that none were doing useful factory work verified. Figure's F.02 at BMW Spartanburg logged about 1,250 operating hours over about 10 to 11 months, which is about four hours a day if those were one robot's hours estimate.
The labour a humanoid would replace in Southeast Asia is cheap. Singapore's outsourced cleaner earns a basic wage of S$2,080 a month from 1 Jul 2026, and Jakarta's 2026 minimum wage is Rp5,729,876 verified. UBTech's reported rent of about US$5,000 a month is about 3x the Singapore wage and 14x Jakarta's unverified, and UBTech says its robot does about 50% of a human's work unverified. At 2026 prices humanoid labour substitution does not pay in Southeast Asia. Cheaper single-purpose robots for cleaning and delivery do.
The open debates
Here is the strongest evidence on each side of each debate, and where it points.
Legs or wheels
Wheels: IFR counted 102,900 transport and logistics robots sold in 2024 (+14%) verified; Amazon passed 1 million robots in mid-2025 unverified; Galbot's wheeled semi-humanoid runs shops and is backed by CATL. Wheels are cheaper, more stable, run longer per charge and fit existing mobile-robot safety standards.
Legs: buildings, stairs and shop floors are made for legs; Unitree sold more than 5,500 legged humanoids in 2025 and Agility's legged Digit holds over US$300m of orders verified. The legged-robot safety standard ISO 25785-1 is still in development.
Where it points: wheels on flat Southeast Asian malls, hotels and warehouses today.
General or specialist
General: brain labs are priced at US$3bn to over US$14bn (Generalist, Physical Intelligence, Skild) verified.
Specialist: the profitable robot businesses are specialists: Intuitive at 84% recurring revenue, Otis-style service annuities. Unitree's general humanoids sold mostly to researchers, with under 3% of humanoid revenue from real industrial work verified.
Where it points: specialists earn money today, and generality is still a lab expense.
Do data scaling laws hold for robots?
For: Generalist says GEN-0 was pre-trained on more than 270,000 hours of real-world data, growing about 10,000 hours a week vendor claim; data-heavy labs keep tripling their valuations.
Against: teleoperation yields about 5 to 50 episodes per operator-hour, data from one robot body transfers imperfectly to another, and task success runs about 95% in the lab against about 60% in the field unverified.
Where it points: failure data from deployed fleets is one data type no lab can simulate, but no source shows anyone paying for it yet. See The data engine.
Are hands the bottleneck?
Yes: hands are about 17% of an Optimus Gen 2 parts list (about US$9,500) with 16 to 22 degrees of freedom estimate.
No: many paid tasks, such as moving totes and loading, use simple grippers; Digit and most warehouse robots work without dexterous hands.
Where it points: hands will break first and cost most to replace (see Hands and touch).
Homes or factories
Homes: 1X NEO at US$20,000 or US$499 a month; Figure plans a home lease of about US$600 a month verified.
Factories: 1X launched NEO at about 60 to 70% autonomy with remote humans filling the gap, and its biggest deal is an enterprise one for up to 10,000 NEOs across EQT portfolio companies unverified. Agility, a factory and warehouse maker, is the one Western humanoid company with a public-market path.
Where it points: businesses pay first and pay on contract. Homes are a later market.
The China price war
War is real: Unitree's R1 launched at ¥39,900 and about 150 Chinese firms make humanoids; Chinese motor capacity far exceeds forecast robot demand verified.
Leaders still earn: Unitree's humanoid gross margin was 62.91% on an average price of about US$24,900 verified.
Where it points: hardware margins will compress. Service, integration and financing near the customer hold margin.
Tesla's timelines
Bull: Fremont lines designed for 1 million robots a year, a 10-million-a-year Giga Texas plan from 2027, Q2 2026 capex of US$5.789bn, and in-house actuators, chips and vision verified.
Bear: about 150 units shipped in 2025, and Optimus Gen 3 still not shown as of September 2026 verified.
Where it points: don't count on Tesla's volumes. If it ships at scale, it pulls Chinese component prices down further.
Southeast Asia snapshot
Southeast Asia buys robots and builds a few; it makes almost none of the core parts. Chinese vendors made 84.7% of the world's commercial service robot shipments in 2024 verified, and the top five commercial service robot makers in 2025 were all Chinese estimate. Pudu launched its T150 factory delivery robot in January 2026 in Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia among other markets verified.
- Distribution is thin. Singapore's authorised Pudu distributor is a division of a coffee company; Malaysia's, Xtrike Robotics, was founded in 2022; Indonesia's Unitree distributor, Halo Robotics, is a drone company verified. Weston Robot holds Unitree service for Singapore and Malaysia.
- Grants are changing. Singapore's EDGE grant replaces EDG, MRA and PSG from 30 Sep 2026, with up to 70% support for SMEs and a cap of S$100,000 a year per company verified.
- Local builders exist. LionsBot (cleaning robots as a service), Botsync (fleet software, 1 million+ production trips in 2025), Hivebotics (a restroom-cleaning robot) and Sharpa (a 22-DoF dexterous hand) are Singapore companies mixed.
- Supply chain is arriving. Beite plans 800,000 roller-screw sets a year in Thailand, Nabtesco plans a Southeast Asian plant, and Malaysia's Lynas is the largest rare earth separator outside China estimate.
- Adoption signals. Thailand's MK Restaurants reportedly runs 530 robots across 355 branches unverified. No agency or vendor publishes Singapore's installed base of service robots.
Terms in this chapter
| English | 中文 + pinyin | ELI5 | Real definition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industry chain | 产业链chǎnyèliàn | Everyone who touches a robot, from the miner who digs up the metal to the shop that uses the robot, in order. | The Chinese framing of an industry as upstream (materials and core components), midstream (robot makers) and downstream (applications and integrators). Officials and sellers use it constantly; Morgan Stanley puts China at about 63% of the humanoid value chain. |
| Upstream | 上游shàngyóu | The part suppliers: magnets, motors, gears, sensors, chips and batteries. | Materials and core components in the robot industry chain: rare earths, magnets, motors, reducers, roller screws, sensors, chips, batteries. China holds about 90% of rare earth refining but about 35% of motors and 30% of power electronics. |
| Midstream | 中游zhōngyóu | The companies that put the parts together into finished robots. | Robot body makers (本体厂商) such as Unitree, AgiBot and UBTech, which integrate components, write the control software and sell the robot. Chinese midstream firms shipped about 90% of 2025's humanoids. |
| Downstream | 下游xiàyóu | The customers who use robots and the people who set them up on site. | Applications, system integrators, distributors and end users. In 1H to Q3 2025, 73.6% of Unitree's humanoid revenue came from research and education buyers. |
| Core components | 核心零部件héxīn língbùjiàn | The expensive, hard-to-make parts inside a robot: the joints, gears, sensors and chips. | Reducers, servo motors and drivers, roller screws, force sensors, encoders and controllers. Actuation plus hands are about 50 to 70% of a humanoid BoM; Chinese makers now lead their home market in harmonic reducers (Leaderdrive 27.5%, Laifual 21.4%, HDSI 4.4% in 2025). |
| Rare earth | 稀土xītǔ | Special metals that make the strong magnets inside every robot motor. China digs up and cleans most of them. | Seventeen elements; neodymium and praseodymium make NdFeB magnets, and dysprosium and terbium keep them magnetised when hot. China: about 70% of mining, 90% of refining, 99% of heavy rare earths. Licences on seven since 4 Apr 2025; an expanded package suspended until 10 Nov 2026. |
| Export control | 出口管制chūkǒu guǎnzhì | A government rule that says you need permission to sell certain things abroad. | Licensing or bans on exports of strategic goods and technology. China licenses rare earths and magnets (from Apr 2025, with an extraterritorial 0.1% rule suspended to 10 Nov 2026); the US controls advanced chips. Dual-use items: 两用物项. |
| Tariff | 关税guānshuì | A tax a country charges on goods coming in from abroad. | Import duty. A Chinese industrial robot entering the US faces about 40%: 2.5% MFN, 25% Section 301 List 1 and 12.5% new Section 301 from 24 Jul 2026 (estimate); a Section 232 robotics action was still pending in Sep 2026. |
| Valuation | 估值gūzhí | What investors say a whole company is worth when they buy a piece of it. | Pre- or post-money price of a company in a funding round or on a market. Figure US$39bn (Sep 2025), Skild over US$14bn (Jan 2026), Unitree about US$9bn at its IPO price and about US$51bn at its first-day close (19 Aug 2026). |
| Financing round | 融资轮次（A轮、B轮）róngzī lúncì (A lún, B lún) | One batch of money a startup raises from investors, named in order: angel, A, B, C. | A priced equity raise (seed, Series A, B, C, pre-IPO). Chinese founders say A轮, B轮; Apptronik's Series A reached more than US$935m with extensions, showing labels no longer map to size. |
| STAR Market | 科创板kēchuàngbǎn | Shanghai's stock market for tech companies, where Unitree listed. | The Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation Board, opened 2019 for tech listings. Unitree listed there on 19 Aug 2026 at ¥150.80, with retail oversubscription above 8,000x, after listing-committee approval in about 73 days. |
| IPO | 上市 / IPOshàngshì | When a private company first sells shares to the public on a stock market. | Initial public offering. Unitree raised about ¥6.1bn (US$905m) on the STAR Market in Aug 2026; AgiBot began a Hong Kong IPO process; Agility is going public by SPAC at US$2.5bn. Chinese speakers usually say 上市 (to list). |
| State capital | 国资guózī | Money from government-owned funds and companies invested in startups. | Investment by state-owned funds, banks and enterprises. Galbot's investors include units of Sinopec, CITIC, Bank of China and SAIC; an NDRC-backed fund targets about ¥1 trillion over 20 years (unverified). |
| Industrial fund | 产业基金chǎnyè jījīn | A government-backed investment pot set up to grow one industry, such as robots, in one city. | Government guidance or industry funds, often co-invested with private capital. Examples: Shenzhen's ¥10bn AI and robotics fund; local funds that require the startup to register or build in the city. |
| Government subsidy | 政府补贴zhèngfǔ bǔtiē | Money a government gives a company to do something it wants, like build robots in its city. | Grants, rent relief and purchase subsidies. Hangzhou offers up to ¥5 million per project (unverified); Singapore's EDGE grant covers up to 70% for SMEs, capped at S$100,000 a year, from 30 Sep 2026. |
| Shipments | 出货量chūhuòliàng | How many robots actually left the factory, which is often fewer than the orders a company talks about. | Units delivered in a period. About 13,000 humanoids in 2025 by Omdia's count (up to 18,000 by others); Unitree over 5,500, AgiBot 5,168, UBTech 1,079, Figure, Agility and Tesla about 150 each. |
| Order | 订单dìngdān | A customer's promise to buy, which is not money until the robot is delivered and paid for. | A purchase commitment, often framework or multi-year and cancellable. Agility claims over US$300m of multi-year orders; Chinese makers announce 订单 by value. Ask what share is delivered and paid. |
| Revenue | 营收yíngshōu | The money customers actually paid the company. | Recognised sales. Unitree 2025: ¥1.708bn, up about 4.3x, with ¥278m GAAP net profit. Figure and Agility have not disclosed revenue. |
| Gross margin | 毛利率máolìlǜ | Out of every dollar a customer pays, what's left after paying for the parts and the factory. | (Revenue minus cost of goods sold) divided by revenue. Unitree 60.4% (2025), humanoids 62.9% (9M 2025) down from 87.7% (2023); UBTech 44.7% (1H 2026); JL Mag magnets about 16%; harmonic reducers 35 to 45%. |
| Smile curve | Draw profit along a product's life from parts to customer and it looks like a smile: high at both ends, low in the middle where things are assembled. | The pattern that value added is highest in R&D and key components and in brand, distribution and service, and lowest in assembly. In robots: chips about 70%+ gross, reducers 35 to 45%, contract assembly 2 to 3% net, Otis-style service 25% operating margin. | |
| Robot density | How many robots a country has for every 10,000 factory workers. | Industrial robots in operation per 10,000 manufacturing employees (IFR). 2024: South Korea 1,220, Singapore 818 (2nd), Germany 449, Japan 446, US 307, China 166 after a denominator change, global average 132. | |
| Section 1260H list | A US Defense Department list of companies it says help China's military. Being on it scares off US customers and investors. | The Pentagon's list of "Chinese military companies" under Section 1260H of the FY2021 NDAA. Unitree was added in Jun 2026; the industry report says briefly, so current status is contested. Listing restricts US defence procurement and chills buyers. |
Sources for this chapter
- IFR, World Robotics 2026 press release, 24 Sep 2026: ifr.org; robot density, 8 Apr 2026: ifr.org; service robots, 7 Oct 2025: ifr.org
- Xinhua, China's industrial robot market, 24 Sep 2026: english.news.cn
- Crunchbase News, robotics funding 2026, 22 Jun 2026: news.crunchbase.com; Value Add VC, 9 Aug 2026: valueaddvc.com
- BBC, Unitree stock debut, 19 Aug 2026: bbc.com; CNBC, Unitree IPO pricing, 6 Aug 2026: cnbc.com; Reuters via Yahoo: finance.yahoo.com; Business Times, DeepSeek placement: businesstimes.com.sg
- 36Kr, Unitree customer mix and margins, 23 Mar 2026: eu.36kr.com
- Figure Series C: figure.ai; CNBC, Apptronik, 11 Feb 2026: cnbc.com; GeekWire, Agility SPAC, 24 Jun 2026: geekwire.com; BusinessWire, Skild AI, 14 Jan 2026: businesswire.com; TechCrunch, Generalist, 25 Aug 2026: techcrunch.com; CXOVoice, 1X and SoftBank, 27 Aug 2026: cxovoice.com
- 24/7 Wall St., Goldman Sachs humanoid forecast, 14 Sep 2026: 247wallst.com; CNBC, Morgan Stanley China forecast, 24 Jun 2026: cnbc.com; Barclays, 14 Jan 2026: businesswire.com; Citi: citigroup.com
- Visual Capitalist, companies shipping humanoids, 17 Mar 2026: visualcapitalist.com; Tesla Q2 2026 update: sec.gov
- Otis 2025 10-K: sec.gov; Intuitive 2025 10-K: sec.gov
- CSIS, rare earth restrictions one year later, Apr 2026: csis.org; CIRS, suspension notice, 12 Nov 2025: cirs-group.com; Andersen Institute, Jul 2026: anderseninstitute.org; CMGM, 24 Jul 2026: cmgm.net
- GrabaRobot, US-China robot import rules, 17 Jul 2026: grabarobot.com; Honigman, new Section 301 tariffs, 24 Jul 2026: honigman.com; Holland & Knight, IEEPA ruling: hklaw.com
- Help Net Security, UniPwn, 16 Oct 2025: helpnetsecurity.com; Alias Robotics, arXiv 2509.14139: arxiv.org; Wikipedia, Unitree Robotics: wikipedia.org
- CNX Software, Jetson price increase, 22 Jul 2026: cnx-software.com
- MOM Singapore, cleaning PWM: mom.gov.sg; RSM Indonesia, 2026 minimum wages: rsm.global; Enterprise Singapore, EDGE grant: enterprisesg.gov.sg
- Keenon via IDC, 2024 service robot shares: keenon.com; Pudu via Frost & Sullivan, 16 Jul 2026: prnewswire.com
- Industry report (research corpus, 28 Jun 2026): supply-chain layers, China share by layer, margins by layer, Chinese state funding. Materials primer (research corpus): margin map.